A new study by Professor Dabo Guan of University College London’s Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction has found that global warming could cost the globe up to $24 trillion (£19 trillion) over the next 36 years. The economic upheavals will have “cascaded” through various industries by 2060, including travel and tourism, transportation, food production, and healthcare. The agricultural sector will lose billions due to heatwaves that make it too hot for crops to grow, and rising sea levels will force the construction of costly new infrastructure due to flooding. Furthermore, persons exposed to excessive heat will incur health costs, and businesses will be negatively impacted by work stoppages when it is too hot to operate.
The effects of climate change on the economy are “staggering,” as the impact on global supply chains highlights how every region is vulnerable to economic instability. The effects of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate include increased heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, sea level rise, and extreme weather events like tropical storms. The experts note that because all industries interrelated, the effects of such catastrophes will spread to other industries.
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In the best-case scenario, global temperatures rise by just 2.7°F (1.5°C) beyond preindustrial levels by 2060, greenhouse gas emissions reduced, and the world moves toward a more sustainable path. However, in the dreaded worst-case scenario, global temperatures rise by a significant 12.6°F (7°C), and humans live in a world of “rapid and unconstrained growth in economic output and energy use.”
The team projects net economic losses of $3.75 trillion (£2.9 trillion) to $24.7 trillion (£19.2 trillion) by 2060, depending on the amount of greenhouse gas emissions. Under the high emission scenario, future excessive heat expected to cost the US and Europe roughly 3.5% and 2.2% of their GDP, respectively.
Developing nations, particularly those in the Global South like Pakistan, Bangladesh and Uganda, already experience disproportionate economic losses due to their carbon emissions. The experts conclude that global supply networks should focus on climate resilience and efficiency, and governments must consider ways to reduce the financial risks associated with climate change as global temperatures rise.
