Scientists are debating whether the anomalies in global temperature in 2024 are consistent with trends of expected global warming or if they signify a worrying acceleration of climate breakdown.
Despite El Niño’s waning, which has been one of the main causes of record global temperature over the last year, heat levels above the seas remain stubbornly high. El Niño has peaked, according to the World Meteorological Organization, and there is an 80% likelihood that it will fade entirely between April and June, though its impacts may persist.
Over 90% of the warming caused by humans absorbed by the oceans, which serve as the planet’s primary heat regulator. The sea surface temperature in January 2024 was far higher than any previous January record, while the record established in August of last year was broken in February with the highest sea surface temperatures ever recorded. One of Brazil’s most prominent climatologists, Carlos Nobre, expressed alarm about the scale of the anomaly above the oceans, stating that no climate model has been able to anticipate with any degree of accuracy how high sea surface temperatures would rise during the last 12 months.
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According to University of Miami scientist Brian McNoldy, the anomaly is most pronounced in the North Atlantic, where the statistical average deviation is one in a 284,000-year occurrence. Global sea and surface temperatures, according to scientist Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth in the US, are “quite high,” but they still well within the range predicted by climate models.
The effects on corals and other marine life are immense; the Great Barrier Reef in Australia is currently experiencing its sixth major bleaching episode in the last eight years. High surface temperatures might potentially portend a longer and more intense storm season, according to meteorologists.
Climate expert Raúl Cordero of the Universities of Groningen and Santiago said there is an increasing chance of a cooling La Niña between June and August, which might provide some relief from the heatwave worldwide, but it would only last a short while. Until we stop consuming fossil fuels, the problem will only get worse.