US Heat Risk Forecast: Where Americans Will Be Most At Risk of Extreme Heat in 2025
Heat waves have become a serious issue of public concern and require special attention each summer across the US. In the last few decades, heat waves have increased the risk of heat-related illnesses like heat stroke and heat exhaustion, which require medical care and may even be life-threatening. The CDC states that elderly populations are the most vulnerable. Each year, hundreds of deaths occur due to extreme heat, along with thousands suffering from other heat-related illnesses exacerbated by chronic conditions.
Heat waves are becoming more critical and dangerous as they increase in duration and intensity. Due to climate change, understanding risk patterns and protective measures is essential for public health.
How Risks are Measured and Projected
The CDC and National Weather Service (NWS) collaborate to produce national forecasts predicting heat risk across the United States. These forecasts evaluate more than just the daily maximum temperature, incorporating:
- Severity of Heat: Absolute temperature values and deviations from historical averages. Areas with unprecedented rises are marked at higher risk.
- Duration of Heat: Longer heat waves increase risks of dehydration, heat exhaustion, and heatstroke.
- Population Vulnerability: Data on populations most likely affected, including the elderly, children, those with chronic illnesses, or those without AC.
By combining these factors, forecasters construct risk maps and predictive models of danger zones for current and future heat events.
Heat Risk National Map
Outlets like CNN frequently display heat maps showing regions at risk. Darker shades indicate unusually high temperatures posing health risks. The NWS also provides apparent temperature forecasts, or “feels like” temperatures, which account for humidity and wind effects.
“Feels Like” Temperature Across US Cities
For more than 800 US cities with populations above 50,000, CNN uses NWS data to calculate “feels like” temperatures, assisting residents in taking precautions such as:
- Avoiding outdoor exertion during peak heat hours.
- Staying hydrated and seeking shade or air-conditioned spaces.
- Monitoring vulnerable neighbors, particularly seniors and those with chronic illnesses.
Public health officials can better anticipate emergency service demand and hospital traffic during heat waves.
The Scope of Extreme Heat Exposure
Not all Americans experience heat waves equally. In summer 2023, over 60 million Americans lived in areas with heat advisories, warnings, or watches. The Southwest, Southeast, and parts of the Midwest face the greatest risk. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable due to the urban heat island effect, where asphalt and concrete trap heat and escalate local temperatures.
Increased Heat at Night
Nighttime temperatures historically allowed recovery from daytime heat. However, urban heat islands and climate change have increased overnight temperatures, leading to:
- Higher dehydration risk.
- Amplified cardiovascular stress.
- Exacerbation of pre-existing conditions such as asthma, COPD, or diabetes.
Sustained heat day and night stresses communities, emergency systems, and public health.
Potential Record-Setting Heat
NWS forecasts include:
- Daily record surpassances.
- Multi-day heat streaks.
- Seasonal record highs.
Tracking overheating regions is crucial, as hospitalizations and fatalities increase sharply with temperature extremes.
Regional Forecasts of Summer Temperatures
Multi-week averages for above, below, and near-normal temperatures help identify areas likely to experience multi-day or multi-week heat waves. Darker-shaded regions indicate higher forecast confidence.
Tracking Heat Records
The Southeastern Regional Climate Center tracks daily high-temperature records, highlighting the ongoing impacts of climate change on American society:
- Infrastructure Stress: Extended high heat strains power grids and water systems.
- Agricultural Impacts: Crop yields and livestock health decline.
- Public Health: Heat-related medical conditions rise.
Safeguarding Citizens from Extreme Heat
Public awareness and proactive preparation are essential. Recommendations include:
- Hydration: Drink water regularly.
- Indoor Cooling: Use AC or cooling centers during peak heat hours.
- Activity Modification: Avoid outdoor labor or exercise during hottest periods.
- Check on vulnerable neighbors and elderly populations.
- Monitor “feels like” temperatures to prevent heat stress.
Climate Change: Understanding the Issue at Hand
The rise of extreme heat is directly linked to climate change. Increased fossil fuel emissions retain heat in the atmosphere, causing:
- More frequent heat waves.
- Higher peak temperatures.
- Warmer nighttime lows.
- Longer and more intense heat events.
If unchecked, these trends will continue to threaten public health and safety.
Public Health and Emergency Preparedness
Local and national organizations implement strategies such as:
- Hospital and emergency service heat surges.
- Air-conditioned parks and shaded public spaces.
- Health campaigns educating on heat stress indicators and prevention.
- Inter-agency communication delivering timely heat risk information.
Looking Ahead: Monitoring Daily and Seasonal Heat Risks
Dynamic daily heat risk maps produced by CNN and others provide:
- Identification of areas under heat advisories, warnings, and watches.
- Estimates of apparent and “feels like” temperatures.
- Regions likely to exceed daily or seasonal temperature averages.
Mapping vulnerable populations alongside meteorological data helps Americans make informed decisions about outdoor activities and work schedules.
Key Takeaways
- Extreme heat remains a major public health challenge across the US.
- Forecasting relies on temperature, duration, and population vulnerability.
- “Feels like” temperature accounts for humidity and wind effects.
- Over 60 million Americans experienced heat advisories in summer 2023.
- Climate change is increasing frequency, duration, and intensity of heat waves, including overnight lows.
- Risk maps guide residents to avoid heat-related illness and plan for emergency preparedness.
Ultimately, growing heat wave intensity, higher baseline temperatures, longer durations, and hotter nights present increasing threats to public health, infrastructure, and the environment. Monitoring advisories and taking preemptive action remains essential. For more climate updates and analyses, visit The Climate Post.
